I have been writing about politics for more than 20 years, and this race seemed as easy to handicap as any over the past two decades. Incumbent Democrat Lupe Valdez has more baggage than a 747, and the challenger, Republican Lowell Cannaday, if unspectacular, seems mostly non-partisan with a squeaky clean record.
So why does it look like Valdez might actually win?
Two reasons: First, the county Democrats have run a surprisingly intelligent and professional campaign. This is in contrast to the county Republicans, who started out by not taking Valdez seriously in the infamous chicken video and never recovered. Second, if what the incredibly erudite and non-partisan Charlie Cook says is true (and he may be the best political commentator in the country), any Republican, any where, is going to have trouble on Nov. 4.
This is not to say that Valdez is a good candidate. As noted, she is one of the worst I’ve ever seen, and I grew up in Chicago, where the candidates regularly included the moronic, the corrupt, and the incarcerated. But she has her talking points down, and can explain away her problems with running the county jail, supervising employees, and supplying basic health care services. They may not be the greatest explanations in the world, but she sounds a lot better making them than she did just a couple of years ago.
What’s even more surprising is that Cannaday hasn’t done a better job of hammering away at Valdez and the jail’s problems. I thought a coalition of good government Democrats, independent voters, and a core group of Republicans would be enough to beat the incumbent. But Cannaday hasn’t been especially effective in convincing the good government or independent voters that Valdez needs to be replaced. I’m not sure if this is complacency on his part, bad campaigning, or some combination. Apparently, he has plenty of money –- almost twice as much as Valdez.
The wild card in all of this is turnout and whether the national GOP’s problems will affect local races. Yes, turnout here will be higher and will probably be more Democratic than in the past. But will those people hang around to vote on down the ballot races like the sheriff’s? Quite a few didn’t in the Democratic primary, when 300,000 votes were cast in the presidential race, but 228,000 were cast in the sheriff’s race.
Cannaday can still win. But I won’t be nearly as surprised as I would have been if Valdez does.
That's it. I have no desire to vote for Valdez and she's shown me nothing in the way of reform. However, Cannaday hasn't done a single thing to win my vote at all. I'm almost considering a non vote for sheriff.
Posted by: chris | October 21, 2008 at 08:28 AM